Thursday, July 9, 2026

30Y treas auction rates above 5p

Last it happend was in Aug 2007 - about 20Y ago and a market peak which broght the real estate and financial crisis..!

Monday, July 6, 2026

is AI bubble worse than DOTCOM bubble?

Start with following circular financing as in who's the buyer vs seller and what are they buying or selling?

& then is it a commodity or a premium product? 

When Meta starts selljng [extra] computer capacity .. you need to start thinking as what's wrong with this picture? 

What i find funny is how this AI thingy shifted the focus from big models to small models to more energy to power centers to less energy to NVDA the chipmaker to everyone making their own to memory / Korea now .. to all jobs going to AI to Meta realizes its biggest mistake .. the point: is there anything unique here or are we just shifting the focus..!

finally the phrase - too risky to not spend enough is what will bring this thing down as you can see the bond offerings made by some of the giants ..!

Wednesday, July 1, 2026

Meta goes into cloud business ..

If you can't find use of something ( aka excess capacity), rent it to someone who can use it or maybe..?

Tuesday, June 23, 2026

why the investors are drinking the coolade investing in AI debt ..?

Because they.are spoiled with returns in technology and other markets which are driven due low interest rates in last 20+ years .. going forward rates will stay high and the funds invested at these rates may not be as lucrative as in past 20 years.

Moreover, a good chuck of the debt is funded by private equity which always chases new stuff.. remember the term venture debt used during late dot com period by companies like WebVan.com

30Y treas auction rates above 5p

Last it happend was in Aug 2007 - about 20Y ago and a market peak which broght the real estate and financial crisis..!