Friday, July 31, 2020

PMI 51.9

expanding .. provided boost to tennies from .528 this morning to .561 now ..!

AMZN is the second biggest employer in US ..!

only after Walmart ... really, AMZN - an e-commerce company ... think about it ..!

why are tennies at .5 ?

post FOMC & GDP this week ... the question is,

are the rates down because economy is in trouble ..? or

we blame fed for keeping the rates artificially low, so tennies have a ceiling ..?

gold touched $2000.

Thursday, July 30, 2020

big tech, big bonanza ...

AMZN, APPL, GOOG & FB all shining post qE, all beat expectations and all are up 5+% ..!

APPL does 4 to 1 split.

if all beat expectations, so why do have stock analysts as none of them is right, again ..!

joke of the day



stock goes from $2 to $40+ due to news on support of The White House ..!

Q2 US GDP -34.9% .. really a 3rd was gone ..!

although its all history but the beauty is that market hardly moved in the moments when the numbers came in, so she was fully prepared to deal with, which include, IJC: 1.43M; CJC: 17M interesting the GDP numbers are annualized, which is done for its own reasons, but simply on the quarterly basis, its is about 9.5%, which is not bad ..! btw, it was Trump tweet suggesting to delay the elections caused worries in the market - not much just touched 3200.

Friday, July 24, 2020

are there parallels between trading & indian cooking ..?

the answer is astounding yes ... maybe because those are the only two things that i do during my lockdown days; LOL seriously, there is a lot that you can leverage from one to another ... more to come ..!

PMI: manu: 51.3; svc: 49.6; comp: 50

it is becoming normal. housing: 4.7Months supply; 13.8% growth in sales, 776K annual; all at high levels teenies at 0.58; goiing down since last FOMC when they were at 0.95

Thursday, July 23, 2020

INTC sees margin pressure

stock down 10% overnight post QE down 17% (Friday morning) delay in 7nm chips

IJC: 1.4M

higher than expected, 18th straight week of 1+M claims; although CJC came down as cumulative.

Wednesday, July 22, 2020

is a hedge fund bullish or bearish ..?

it's a wrong question to ask in first place ..! a question that CNBC anchor has asked Bill Ackman near the bottom of the market (mid March) and then again today .. of course, Bill answered the question in his own way, but the point is that its a wrong question in first place? hedge funds hold both long and short positions in various companies and they could be wrong on either side, on top of that they hedge those positions with options, so, there is no way a hedge fund manager can reply the question as a boolean so a genernal investor could use it as a guidance for his investments .. any investment conversation is purely based in the context of time; e.g. you may buy a stock and hold a position for an year, but also hold a put on that security at the same time for next 3 months ... so are you bullish or bearish ..? & the answer is, it depends ..!

Monday, July 20, 2020

talk of US stimulus & EU actual stimulus

provided the double boost to the market; S&P 3273

are we running this economy simply on stimulus ..?



as they have become routine in US politics, but keep in mind that its simply borrowing from future as there is no free lunch in economics .. politics may be ..!

when NASDAQ ends with a record close and S&P turns +ve for the year  ..!

Thursday, July 16, 2020

IJC:1.3M CJC:17M RS: 7.5%

IJC came higher than expected, although people are spending more due to PPE

Tuesday, July 14, 2020

Monday, July 13, 2020

Thursday, July 9, 2020

IJC: 1.31M; CJC: 18M

although lower than last week, still really high .. can we bring the unemployment in single digit by EOY? market say enough and dropped 2% mid-day and then recovred half. Major headlines: layoffs at Americans and Walgreens

Thursday, July 2, 2020

strong june NFP report ...

4.8M jobs added ..

market jumped initially, but both teenies and market gave up by EOD sensing too much optimism, as 3150 seems hard for market to cross.