Tuesday, September 30, 2025

why tariff's are not causing inflation ..?

because inflation is a monetary phenomenon .. it rises in proportion to the money supply (mostly reckless spending by congress) or a reduction in supply of goods ..both ends up in higher prices .. 

however, higher cost [to producer] doesn't cause inflation, as long as monetary supply remains the same .. aha and that's why all the smarties got it wrong .. for a given monetary supply, marginal higher costs resulting in marginally higher prices resulting in a marginal reduction in demand, which ends up keeping prices just about the same for a slightly lower demand [of expensive items] .. as what people miss is that inflation is calculated using a basket of goods as consumed and not by individual items ..!

& a reduction in demand affects pricing in many ways including lower crude prices & lower transportation costs & in reduction in labor force as seen in payroll numbers

the imported items are roughly 10% higher since the BOY and its not because of tariffs, rather a devaluation of dollar .. it's the reckless spending by congress leading the devaluation of dollar is resulting in inflation & that's why your coffee is 10% more expensive since BOY

i wish the economist had studied, the Boyle's and Charles's laws of Gases ..!

Friday, September 26, 2025

a new valuation model .. or is it simply a wrapper on an old model?

The promise of AI is that it will replace the human workforce ... but if they replace the workforce who will buy and use AI services .. just like the dot com days it was eyeballs, which turned out to be not a good measure.

AI will replace the human workforce, but not the entire workforce; you need people to purchase goods and services or use Google and Meta for free - aka demand .. and they can only do that when employed .. tech is already a 3rd of S&P500 and its rising because of the promise of AI to replace humans with machines .. how far you think they can stretch; ie. where do the valuations go from here..?

In order to keep the hype, companies are not only selling the promise, but also investing in each other, as seen lately .. which i call a fake currency; ie same capital is counted multiple times .. just like stock options were used to invest in companies in dot com days .. a common theme across all bubbles..!

Tuesday, September 23, 2025

JP verifies my hypothesis today that ..

A good chunk of tariffs cost is borne out by importer so far ..  which is partly covered by lower transportation costs as well as reduction in hiring.

Friday, September 19, 2025

Britishers say Islam is destroying UK ..

Muslim want sharia law in UK ..

I say "what goes around come around ..!" .. its your karma .. as said in Bhagvadgeeta.

Wednesday, September 17, 2025

Wednesday, September 10, 2025

PPI came down low ..

And folks are still looking for the tariffs causing a raise in prices...
instead, consumption is slowing down .. so tariffs are paid for lower cost of crude and transportation .. while cx is paying the same or higher ...so who's losing .. while govt. is collecting higher taxes on slowing demand .. it's double jeopardy as seen in unemployment numbers as businesses are not hiring ..!

Tuesday, September 9, 2025

payroll growth revised to down 911K in last 1Y

now imagine how traders/markets were jumping up and down and commentators were commenting & justifying .. how good or bad those numbers were at that point in time ... it's total bullshit ..! 

Friday, September 5, 2025

NFP 22k ..

Market is expecting and is addicted to rate cuts .. despite the fact that unemployment % is only 4.3% ..!

moreover, both stocks and gold is hitting all time high and its only one the two is right.. think about it..!

Tuesday, September 2, 2025

why tariff's are not causing inflation ..?

because inflation is a monetary phenomenon .. it rises in proportion to the money supply (mostly reckless spending by congress) or a reducti...