i started this project with a vision "to project market behavior over a short period of time" as i never believed or assumed that you can predict market behavior <period>; especially, over a long-term that most experts do.
while studying butterfly effect within the context of Chaos theory, here are a few things that i learned:
1. financial markets "may be deterministic" although i really don't use that characteristic in my models, but they are definitely non-linear dynamic systems; i.e. a small change in input conditions can reflect a huge change in output
2. plus, the projection can only be made for really short-term, even with all sorts of caveats, so long-term prediction or projection is not possible
also, its proven that a dual rod pendulum generates vastly different outcome based on slightly different initial conditions; imagine, if i told you that market consists of 9 pendulums swinging simultaneously.
funny
things is i didn't know about these characteristics of Chaos theory
which i studied recently (as in Sep 2020) while i developed my vision
about a decade ago, but now it makes sense to me more so in mathematical context.
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