Tuesday, June 30, 2020
personal immunity seems to be the only solution to corona ...
by some estimates, it is expected that half the US population will catch corona;
in that case, i believe that the only solution is to build an immunity at personal level.
Monday, June 29, 2020
why computers never give us a wrong answer ..?
because we talk to them in a language based on logic (aka programming languages); so, there is no room for confusion ..!
or looking differently, a machine or human behavior is based on the language used; so a person's behavior is based on how vast and subjective / diplomatic language that he uses.
or people behave as per commonly used words and phrases used in a language; e.g. on Wallstreet, its common to talk about risk management, volatility & risk even if there are many interpretations of these words.
think about it ..!
Saturday, June 27, 2020
Friday, June 26, 2020
100% of analysts were wrong on "predicting" Nike earnings
not even an exception, even when the consumer spending rebounded, although income dropped.
Thursday, June 25, 2020
feds made ammendments to Volcker rule ...
to allow banks to invest in startup and businesses
plus the health check pushing to avoid buybacks and limit their dividends.
Wednesday, June 24, 2020
logical fallacies .. use of facts but manipulation of logic by experts ...!
how smart people use facts but manipulate the logic to arrive at faulty conclusions ..!
in context of putting a pause in H1B visa applications, the tech chiefs have come out to oppose it arguing that it will limit innovation and new startups in future & will hurt the economy in long-term ... which is a fact, but the admin. has never said that it is done forever ... at present, when the administration's main worry is to keep everyone employed in this country by not letting the companies fire any workers .. when the unemployment in the country is in teens, does it make sense to bring someone from out of the country for employment ..?
i hear experts saying that stocks go up in long-term, so you can invest in them anytime, which is technically a fact, but as an expert in subject matter, which is the key, you many not wanna apply those facts at the peak of internet or real-estate bubble, from where stocks went down 50% ... and a fact becomes logical fallacy ..!
Monday, June 22, 2020
market action & recation ..
in the evening, market drops and rises 2% each side on Navarrao' s comments, which were taken out of context, so market recovered when clarified by him - all within an hour ...
funny, the machines don't understand the context .. yet ... rather, they follow Brownian motion .. which reminds me the role of Amitabh Bachchan in the movIe Sharabi ..!
Saturday, June 20, 2020
flim making & life lessons by Anurag Kashyap
i believe film making is one of the toughest jobs in the world because you work so hard on a project, bring myriad of things together (actors, writers, directors, producers, music, camera, story & it goes on & on) and the movie has a single outcome; & on top of that if you are dealing with low budget and no brand name situation, it makes it really tough .. anyway, what i find interesting in this talk is some of his experiences of life are parallel to mine, but interesting to hear so many good things in a single talk.
1. life gives you choices, its up to you what you make of them
2. your choices have consequences; you & only you are responsible for the consequences
3. you may have great intentions, but the world has its own perspective of looking at them; so there are consequences of your actions, which you may not understand (all the above from Geeta)
4. your dreams are yours only, you owe to yourself [for those dreams]; the world doesn't owe you anything.
5. opportunities are out there, you just need to find them.
6. limited resources bring creativity in you, ample resources bring ambition in you.
7. technologies is available so cheaply now-a-days that there are no constraints, you can make a 4K movie using iPhone
8. devise a process of shooting a film w/o disturbing the object (Heisenberg's principle)
9. when things go wrong, its easy to blame others; some people only complain in life
10. leadership starts with you (the leader)
11. every problem has a solution, just need to re-look & understand the problem
12. life is a cycle, when you are at the top of the cycle, you make mistakes which bring you down
13. the cycle goes: face problems -> find solutions -> with persistence you become effective solving problems -> you find more resources, become ambitious -> make mistakes -> fall
but your strength lies in starting all over again ..!
Tuesday, June 16, 2020
Monday, June 15, 2020
if the statements made by humans are based on facts and logic, then why do people argue all the time
or more specifically, markets go up and down so much
e.g. corona became a big deal on Friday but not so much today.
think about it ..!
got junk ? call US Fed.
as they are ready to buy anything .. today they announced to enter the corporate bond market.
Saturday, June 13, 2020
Friday, June 12, 2020
did corona get to Renaissance ..?
the fund is down 20% YTD .. it's not a criticism, rather, i am curious as to how computerized trading deals with high volatility based on abnormal situation and deals with human behavior.
after Buffett & Munger, the next person i have keen interest in learning about is Jim Simons, an academic mathematician, who runs a $75B Renaissance fund, which have been blatantly successful applying mathematical models to trading until this year.
a weekend entertainer ..
logic is reversible, while guesses are absolute ..!
try guessing something exactly different than you did last time .. got you ..!
zero commissions & stay home is producing day traders ...
Thanks to Robin hood ..!
& is the cause of volatility as to what happened yesterday when all those stops are called.
Thursday, June 11, 2020
an interesting game indeed ...
as market sold off 3% over night (& 7% by EOD) .. & so did teenies, dropped a 1/3rd since NFP on Friday ...!
now stock & bond markets look good as a pair ... for now ..!
check yesterday's posting for the rest.
Wednesday, June 10, 2020
Feds left the rates unchanged ...
which was expected, and markets stayed around 3200, again which was expected ..
so what's the problem ..?
teenies down 20% since NFP on Friday (literally 3 days ..!) ... bond market is not expecting a full recovery anytime soon; we have come from lowest unemployment in Feb to one of the highest in recent history over 3 months,while stock markets have shaken all concerns, so quickly.
& that's what makes the game so interesting ..!
Monday, June 8, 2020
NBER officially declared economy entered into recession in Feb ...
i guess congratulations must be in order to them for letting us know ...!
Sunday, June 7, 2020
INTP pesonality behavior
an INTP sees the world as myriad of possibilities; specifically, the way i see a given situation is how much i don't know versus what i know ... its not a negative trait, rather an INTP always sees far more possibilities than most other people do ... & this becomes a point of contention when dealing with people ...
e.g. if i have an interest in a subject & am facing a situation, chances are high that i have already identified 24 possibilities, & i know that there are 24 more out there, even though i can't describe them at present; in contrast, others who may know only a few possibilities, think they have already figured out everything; and expect an INTP to praise them, give them A+, but end up getting C ... which doesn't jive with most people .. rather an INTP, me specifically, would be more than delighted to hear, people say, " here are the 3, but i don't know enough!" would get B+ for making an effort & being honest to themselves
secondly, when you are planning to get from point A to point B, an INTP needs to know each & every step in the middle, while even INTJ - the mastermind - would say that i will have someone else figure out or we will find out on the way, instead, an INTP would be more comfortable saying, "i don't know all the steps to get there, even though we resolve it later" .. what it also means is that INTP spend most of their times thinking & planning - a plan that never completes - generally lasts a decade, much like this venture, but but but, once they call it done, its really done; i.e. the solution is simple, stupid & fool proof, just like E = MC2 ... & there is not much left for a chance.
Saturday, June 6, 2020
a new addition to TheVIP's kitchen ...
3 states of making sambar
early state of veggies for Sambar
pre-Sambar veggies
final state - idli & udipi sambar
Friday, June 5, 2020
"i see the china deal differently" ~ Trump
that's why i love this president .. as he is the first to say the above words ..!
"the ink wasn't even dry on the deal and the gift from China showed up ... it didn't go to other parts of China because they knew about it, controlled the movement of people, but left it open with US & Europe .." ~ Trump
those are the facts ..!
China did its move, but US was able to withstand that and now comes the counter move.
2.5M jobs added in May
in contrast to economist expecting a loss of 9-10M jobs ... so much the power of prediction ..!
just give up .. but then it will result in lots of unemployment ... okay, for humanity's sake, keep this prediction business going ..!
unemployment 13.5%; teenies at 0.9 - a10% jump
Wednesday, June 3, 2020
Monday, June 1, 2020
economy vs stock markets ...
while UK is about to face the worst recession in 300 years, US stock market is within 10% of its all time high ... that's the power of US Feds ..!
35 signs of an INTP - do you really know me ..?
best video i could find on INTP, which gets 34/35 ... this is INTP in me who will never give you 35/35 .. in #24, even when i know i am wearing something backwards, i still don't bother to fix it ..!
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